A Monte Carlo simulation-based health risk assessment of heavy metals in soils of the tropical region in southern China.

The disturbance of ecological stability may take place in tropical regions due to the elevated biomass density resulting from heavy metal and other contaminant pollution. In this study, 62 valid soil samples were collected from Sanya. Source analysis of heavy metals in the area was carried out using absolute principal component-multiple linear regression receptor modelling (APCS-MLR); the comprehensive ecological risk of the study area was assessed based on pollution sources; the Monte-Carlo model was used to accurately predict the health risk of pollution sources in the study area. The results showed that: The average contents of soil heavy metals Cu, Ni and Cd in Sanya were 5.53, 6.56 and 11.66 times higher than the background values of heavy metals. The results of soil geo-accumulation index (I) showed that Cr, Mo, Mn and Zn were unpolluted to moderately polluted, Cu and Ni were moderately polluted, and Cd was moderately polluted to strongly polluted. The main sources of heavy metal pollution were natural sources (57.99%), agricultural sources (38.44%) and traffic sources (3.57%). Natural and agricultural sources were jointly identified as priority control pollution sources and Cd was the priority control pollution element for soil ecological risk. Heavy metal content in Sanya did not pose a non-carcinogenic risk to the population, but there was a carcinogenic risk to children. The element Zn had a high carcinogenic risk to children, and was a priority controlling pollutant element for the risk of human health, with agricultural sources as the priority controlling pollutant source.