Epidemiology of early vs late recurrence among women with early stage estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer in the Pathways Study.

Background: Relatively little is known about the differences in prognostic factors for early vs late recurrence among women with early stage estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer.

Methods: We analyzed factors related to early (<5 years) vs late (≥5 years) recurrence in 2992 women with stage I-IIB estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer in the Pathways Study, a prospective cohort of women with breast cancer enrolled between 2006 and 2013, with ascertainment of recurrence and death through December 2021.

Results: After a median follow-up of 13.3 years, 341 (13.8%) women had recurrences, including 181 (53.7%) with late recurrence. Higher stage and grade were associated with recurrence regardless of timing, whereas progesterone receptor negativity was associated with early but not late recurrence. Receipt of endocrine therapy was associated with reduced risk of overall recurrence, but the length of endocrine therapy was not statistically significant in multivariable models. Minoritized racial and ethnic groups, including Asian, Black, and Hispanic women, had higher risk of early but not late recurrence compared to non-Hispanic White women. The trend of higher risk of early recurrence among these groups remained after adjustment for clinical, demographic, and socioeconomic factors but was statistically significant only in Asian women.

Conclusions: Our study revealed potentially important distinctions for early vs late recurrence, including the associations with progesterone receptor negativity and self-identified race and ethnicity. Possible higher risk of early recurrence among Asian, Black, and Hispanic women provides novel evidence for the existence of disparities in cancer outcomes, even within the breast cancer subtype indicative of generally good prognosis.