Time to death and predictors of mortality among early neonates admitted to neonatal intensive care unit of Addis Ababa public Hospitals, Ethiopia: Institutional-based prospective cohort study.

Introduction: The largest risk of child mortality occurs within the first week after birth. Early neonatal mortality remains a global public health concern, especially in sub-Saharan African countries. More than 75% of neonatal death occurs within the first seven days of birth, but there are limited prospective follow- up studies to determine time to death, incidence and predictors of death in Ethiopia particularly in the study area. The study aimed to determine incidence and predictors of early neonatal mortality among neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of Addis Ababa public hospitals, Ethiopia 2021.

Methods: Institutional prospective cohort study was conducted in four public hospitals found in Addis Ababa City, Ethiopia from June 7th, 2021 to July 13th, 2021. All early neonates consecutively admitted to the corresponding neonatal intensive care unit of selected hospitals were included in the study and followed until 7 days-old. Data were coded, cleaned, edited, and entered into Epi data version 3.1 and then exported to STATA software version 14.0 for analysis. The Kaplan Meier survival curve with log- rank test was used to compare survival time between groups. Moreover, both bi-variable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to identify the predictors of early neonatal mortality. All variables having P-value ≤0.2 in the bi-variable analysis model were further fitted to the multivariable model. The assumption of the model was checked graphically and using a global test. The goodness of fit of the model was performed using the Cox-Snell residual test and it was adequate.

Results: A total of 391 early neonates with their mothers were involved in this study. The incidence rate among admitted early neonates was 33.25 per 1000 neonate day's observation [95% confidence interval (CI): 26.22, 42.17]. Being preterm birth [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR): 6.0 (95% CI 2.02, 17.50)], having low fifth minute Apgar score [AHR: 3.93 (95% CI; 1.5, 6.77)], low temperatures [AHR: 2.67 (95%CI; 1.41, 5.02)] and, resuscitating of early neonate [AHR: 2.80 (95% CI; 1.51,5.10)] were associated with increased hazard of early neonatal death. However, early neonatal crying at birth [AHR: 0.48 (95%CI; 0.26, 0.87)] was associated with reduced hazard of death.

Conclusions: Early neonatal mortality is high in Addis Ababa public Hospitals. Preterm birth, low five-minute Apgar score, hypothermia and crying at birth were found to be independent predictors of early neonatal death. Good care and attention to neonate with low Apgar scores, premature, and hypothermic neonates.