Development of a CT-assessed adiposity nomogram for predicting outcome in localized ccRCC.

Purpose: This study aimed to develop and validate a computed tomography-based nomogram assessing visceral and subcutaneous adiposity for predicting outcomes in localized clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC).

Methods: A cohort of 364 patients with pathologically confirmed ccRCC participated in this retrospective study, with 254 patients assigned to the training set and 110 to the validation set (a 7:3 distribution ratio). The adipose score (AS) was generated using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression. Subsequently, a nomogram was constructed by integrating the clinical independent predictor with the AS to predict disease-free survival (DFS) in localized ccRCC after surgery. The performance of the nomogram was compared with the University of California, Los Angeles, Integrated Staging System (UISS), and the Stage, Size, Grade, and Necrosis (SSIGN) score.

Results: In both the training and validation cohorts, the nomogram exhibited superior discrimination compared to SSIGN and UISS (C-index: 0.897 vs. 0.781 vs. 0.776 in the training cohort, and 0.752 vs. 0.596 vs. 0.686 in the validation cohort; 5 year AUC: 0.907 vs. 0.805 vs. 0.820 in the training cohort, and 0.832 vs. 0.577 vs. 0.726 in the validation cohort). Decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed a superior net benefit across a wider range of threshold probabilities for predicting 5 year DFS compared to UISS and SSIGN scores.

Conclusions: The developed prognostic nomogram demonstrated high accuracy and overall superior performance compared to existing prognostic models.