Conditional Risk and Predictive Factors Associated With Late Toxicity in Patients With Prostate Cancer Treated With External Beam Radiation Therapy Alone in the Randomized Trial RTOG 0126.

Purpose: The objective of this study was to characterize the conditional risk of developing grade 2+ urinary or gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity for patients treated with external beam radiation therapy in Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 0126. A secondary objective was to analyze baseline patient and treatment characteristics and determine their relevance in predicting toxicity both at the time of trial enrollment and at later points of follow-up.

Methods And Materials: One thousand five hundred thirty-two patients with localized prostate cancer were enrolled between March 2002 and August 2008, of whom 1499 were eligible and included in data analysis with a median follow-up of 8.4 years (range, 0.02-13 years). Patients were treated with either 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy or intensity-modulated radiation therapy according to institutional practice without the addition of androgen deprivation and randomized to receive either standard-dose radiation therapy of 70.2 Gy or dose-escalated radiation therapy of 79.2 Gy of radiation therapy to the prostate only with standard fractionation. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine whether initial factors were predictive of late toxicity at the time of treatment and at later time points.

Results: As patients proceed further from completion of radiation therapy without the development of toxicity, the subsequent risk of both grade 2+ genitourinary (GU) and GI toxicity decreases with time. At the time of enrollment, the risk of developing grade 2+ toxicity over the next 5 years was 9.57% and 17.89%, respectively. After 5 years of toxicity-free survival, the risk of developing grade 2+ GU or GI toxicity in the subsequent 5 years was 3.02% and 1.54%, respectively. Baseline treatment and patient-related factors predicted late toxicity both at trial enrollment and after 2 years of toxicity-free survivorship. Baseline urinary dysfunction and dose-escalated radiation therapy were associated with increased late GU toxicity. Acute GI toxicity and dose-escalated radiation therapy were associated with increased risk of late GI toxicity. Treatment with intensity-modulated radiation therapy was associated with reduced risk of either toxicity.

Conclusions: The conditional risk of grade 2+ toxicities decreases as patients proceed further from treatment, with most toxicities occurring in the first few years after treatment completion. Baseline patient and treatment characteristics remain relevant at both enrollment and later time points.