The effect of birth timing manipulation around carnival on birth indicators in Brazil.

This paper studies the patterns and consequences of birth timing manipulation around the carnival holiday in Brazil. We document how births are displaced around carnival and estimate the effect of displacement on birth indicators. We show that there is extensive birth timing manipulation in the form of both anticipation and postponement that results in a net increase in gestational length and reductions in neonatal and early neonatal mortality, driven by postponed births that would otherwise happen through scheduled c-sections. We also find a reduction in birthweight for high-risk births at the bottom of the weight distribution, driven by anticipation. Therefore, restrictions on usual delivery procedures due to the carnival holiday can be both beneficial and detrimental, raising a double-sided issue to be addressed by policymakers.