Impact of anti-VEGF treatment on development of proliferative diabetic retinopathy in routine clinical practice.

Background: This study evaluated impact of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) treatment on proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) development among patients with non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) in US real-world clinical practice.

Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of electronic medical records (Vestrum Health; January 2013 to June 2019) of eyes with baseline NPDR, without DME, and naïve to anti-VEGF treatment at index DR diagnosis. Eyes that received anti-VEGF and/or laser treatment over the course of study before development of PDR constituted the treated cohort while the remaining including those treated with laser constituted the anti-VEGF naïve cohort. Survival analysis via Kaplan-Meier method evaluated time to DME and PDR development by baseline NPDR severity, with anti-VEGF treatment as censoring variable. Baseline factors affecting PDR development were analyzed using Cox multivariable regression, censoring for anti-VEGF treatment.

Results: Among anti-VEGF-naive eyes, cumulative incidence of DME in eyes with mild (n = 70,050), moderate (n = 39,116), and severe NPDR (n = 10,692) at baseline was 27.1%, 51.2%, and 60.6%. Multivariable regression analysis identified baseline NPDR severity as the most significant predictor of PDR development over 48 months (hazard ratio [HR] [95% confidence interval {CI}] of 2.69 (2.65-2.72) for moderate vs mild NPDR and 6.51 (6.47-6.55) for severe vs mild NPDR). Cumulative incidence (95% CI) of PDR was 7.9% (7.4%-8.3%), 20.9%, (20.0%-21.7%) and 46.8% (44.4%-49.2%) over 48 months in eyes with mild, moderate, and severe NPDR at baseline, respectively. Among treated eyes with baseline severe NPDR, cumulative incidence of PDR at 48 months was 50.1% in eyes treated with laser (n = 546; HR [95% CI] vs no treatment: 0.8 [0.7-1.0]), 27.4% in eyes treated with anti-VEGF (n = 923; HR [95% CI]: 0.4 [0.4-0.5]), and 25.6% in eyes treated with anti-VEGF plus laser (n = 293; HR [95% CI]: 0.5 [0.4-0.7]) compared with 49.9% in eyes with no treatment (n = 8930).

Conclusions: DME and PDR development rates increased with increasing baseline NPDR severity. Approximately half of anti-VEGF‒naive eyes with severe NPDR progressed to PDR within 4 years in US clinical practice. The progression rate from severe NPDR to PDR was approximately halved with anti-VEGF versus no treatment.