Nomogram-based prognostic tool for stage IIIB/IV non-small cell lung cancer patients undergoing traditional Chinese medicine treatment.

Objective: Given the significant impact of long-term traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) treatment on the prognosis of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), we aimed to develop nomograms, with or without consideration of TCM treatment duration, to accurately predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with stage IIIB/IV NSCLC treated with TCM.

Methods: Nomograms were developed from a training cohort comprised of 292 patients diagnosed with NSCLC, using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses to screen for various prognostic factors with and without TCM treatment. The nomograms were evaluated using the concordance index (-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA), after which they were validated, using the bootstrap self-sampling method for internal validation, and a validation cohort comprised of 175 patients for external validation. Bootstrap validation is a resampling technique that involves randomly selecting and replacing data from the original dataset to make statistical inferences, thereby circumventing the issue of sample reduction that can arise from cross-validation.

Results: We identified seven significant prognostic factors for OS. For nomogram A (excluding TCM treatment time), the -indexes (95 % confidence interval [CI]) were 0.674 (0.635-0.712) and 0.660 (0.596-0.724) for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. For nomogram B (including TCM treatment time), the -indices (95 % CI) were 0.846 (0.822-0.870) and 0.783 (0.730-0.894), for the training and validation cohorts, respectively, indicating that nomogram B was superior to nomogram A. Both the calibration curves and DCA results exhibited favorable clinical concordance and usefulness.

Conclusion: The nomogram B yielded precise prognostic predictions for patients with advanced NSCLC treated with TCM.