Climatic niche evolution and niche conservatism of Nymphaea species in Africa, South America, and Australia.

Background: Interest in the evolution of climatic niches, particularly in understanding the potential adaptive responses of species under climate change, has increased both theoretically and within macroecological studies. These studies have provided valuable insights into how climatic traits of species influence their niche evolution. In this study, we aim to investigate whether niche conservatism plays a role in the species diversification of Nymphaea, a group of aquatic plants with a cosmopolitan distribution that is facing severe habitat loss. We will use climatic models and phylogenetic data for 23 species to reconstruct Nymphaea's niche evolution, measure niche overlap, and assess disparity through time while testing for evolutionary models.

Results: There was a lot of overlap in niches both within and between groups, especially for species that can be found in many places. The breadth and peaks of the niche profile varied depending on the bioclimatic variables, which suggested that the species evolved differently to cope with changes in climate. The analysis also showed that evolutionary changes happened across the phylogeny, with weak to moderate signals. The morphological disparity index (MDI) values indicated that there were disparities within subclades over time but not between or among them. Niche reconstruction and evolution analysis revealed both convergent and divergent evolution among various variables. For example, N. immutabilis, N. atrans, N. violancea, and N. nouchali evolved towards intermediate temperatures for bio2 and bio3 (isothermity) while moving towards extreme temperatures for bio8 and bio9 (wettest and driest average quarterly temperatures).

Conclusion: Our study will improve our understanding of how changes in climatic niches are potentially driving the evolution of Nymphaea. It has significant scientific implications for the limits, assemblages, evolution, and diversification of species. This information is crucial for the ongoing efforts of conservation and management, particularly considering the inevitable effects of climate change.