A preoperative model to predict overall survival in patients with hepatoma undergoing resection.

Background: We aimed to develop a preoperative model to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with hepatoma undergoing liver resection (LR).

Methods: Patients who underwent LR for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0, A, or B hepatoma were enrolled. Tumor burden score (TBS) scores were determined using the following equation: TBS (Pinna et al., 2018) 2 = (largest tumor size [in cm])(Pinna et al., 2018) 2 ​+ ​(tumor number) (Pinna et al., 2018) 22. The cutoff values for radiographic TBS were based on our recently published paper: low, <2.6; medium, 2.6-7.9; high, >7.9.

Results: Multivariate analysis showed that radiographic TBS (low: referent; medium: HR ​= ​2.89; 95 ​% CI: 1.60-5.21; p ​< ​0.001; high, HR ​= ​7.60; 95 ​% CI: 3.80-15.2; p ​< ​0.001), AFP (<400 ​ng/mL: referent; ≧400 ​ng/mL: HR ​= ​1.67, 95 ​% CI: 1.11-2.52, p ​= ​0.014), and cirrhosis (absence: referent; presence: HR ​= ​1.88, 95 ​% CI: 1.30-2.72, p ​< ​0.001) were associated with OS. A simplified risk score was superior to BCLC system in concordance index (0.688 vs. 0.623).

Conclusions: We have developed a preoperative model that performs better in predicting OS than the BCLC system.