Our aim was to construct an index that accurately predicts the degree of benefit or harm that prednisone therapy holds for patients with liver cirrhosis. The admission and survival data of 488 patients with cirrhosis who participated in a controlled clinical trial of prednisone in a dosage of 10-15 mg daily (251 patients) versus placebo (237 patients) and who were observed for up to 12 yr were analyzed using Cox's multiple regression model. Four variables each provided significant therapeutic information: antinuclear factor (p = 0.02) and large piecemeal necroses (p = 0.02) were associated with a beneficial effect, whereas ascites (p = 0.0004) and large regenerative nodules (p = 0.0007) were associated with a harmful effect of prednisone. From these four variables a therapeutic index was constructed. For a given patient the therapeutic index is a measure of how big the effect will be if prednisone is given. The gain in survival time obtained by administering prednisone according to the therapeutic index was estimated to be 349 yr, mainly confined to 217 patients with a significant positive (121) or negative (96) therapeutic index. The therapeutic index may prove useful for the optimal administration of prednisone treatment in new patients with cirrhosis.
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