Etiologies underlying subtypes of long-standing type 2 diabetes.

Background: Attempts to subtype, type 2 diabetes (T2D) have mostly focused on newly diagnosed European patients. In this study, our aim was to subtype T2D in a non-white Emirati ethnic population with long-standing disease, using unsupervised soft clustering, based on etiological determinants.

Methods: The Auto Cluster model in the IBM SPSS Modeler was used to cluster data from 348 Emirati patients with long-standing T2D. Five predictor variables (fasting blood glucose (FBG), fasting serum insulin (FSI), body mass index (BMI), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and age at diagnosis) were used to determine the appropriate number of clusters and their clinical characteristics. Multinomial logistic regression was used to validate clustering results.

Results: Five clusters were identified; the first four matched Ahlqvist et al subgroups: severe insulin-resistant diabetes (SIRD), severe insulin-deficient diabetes (SIDD), mild age-related diabetes (MARD), mild obesity-related diabetes (MOD), and a fifth new subtype of mild early onset diabetes (MEOD). The Modeler algorithm allows for soft assignments, in which a data point can be assigned to multiple clusters with different probabilities. There were 151 patients (43%) with membership in cluster peaks with no overlap. The remaining 197 patients (57%) showed extensive overlap between clusters at the base of distributions.

Conclusions: Despite the complex picture of long-standing T2D with comorbidities and complications, our study demonstrates the feasibility of identifying subtypes and their underlying causes. While clustering provides valuable insights into the architecture of T2D subtypes, its application to individual patient management would remain limited due to overlapping characteristics. Therefore, integrating simplified, personalized metabolic profiles with clustering holds greater promise for guiding clinical decisions than subtyping alone.