Estimated glucose disposal rate and risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in U.S. adults with prediabetes: a nationwide cross-sectional and prospective cohort study.

Aims: Estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR), a noninvasive and convenient measure of insulin resistance, has been demonstrated to be associated with mortality in both type 1 and type 2 diabetes. We aimed to explore whether eGDR is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and mortality in prediabetic adults.

Methods: A nationwide population-based cohort of prediabetic individuals from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2018 with available data on eGDR was included and categorized into eGDR ≥ 8 (reference), 6-7.99, 4-5.99, and < 4 mg/kg/min groups. Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the associations of eGDR with mortality.

Results: A total of 4725 prediabetic adults, 60.12% men, mean age 48 years were included. The odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI) for CVD risk were 1.74 (1.08-2.78), 2.90 (1.79-4.67), and 4.58 (2.15-9.76) for the eGDR 6-7.99, 4-5.99, and < 4 mg/kg/min groups, respectively, compared with the reference group. There were 410 deaths (116 CVD-related) during a median follow-up of 107 months in 4,332 participants without baseline CVD. The hazard ratios and 95%CI for the eGDR 6-7.99, 4-5.99, and < 4 mg/kg/min groups were 1.70 (1.23-2.35), 2.01 (1.45-2.77), and 1.84 (1.11-3.04), respectively, for all-cause mortality (P for trend < 0.0001), and 3.84 (2.04-7.21), 4.01 (2.01-8.00), and 2.88 (1.03-8.06), respectively, for CVD mortality (P for trend = 0.01). Smoking status significantly modified the associations between eGDR and all-cause or CVD mortality.

Conclusions: Increased insulin resistance, as indicated by a lower eGDR, is associated with increased risks of all-cause and CVD mortality in U.S. prediabetic adults.