Resurgence of wheat stem rust infections in western Europe: causes and how to curtail them.

Ten years ago, (black) stem rust - the most damaging of wheat (Triticum aestivum) rusts - re-emerged in western Europe. Disease incidences have since increased in scale and frequency. Here, we investigated the likely underlying causes and used those to propose urgently needed mitigating actions. We report that the first large-scale UK outbreak of the wheat stem rust fungus, Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici (Pgt), in 2022 may have been caused by timely arrival of airborne urediniospores from southwest Europe. The drive towards later-maturing wheat varieties in the UK may be exacerbating Pgt incidences, which could have disastrous consequences. Indeed, infection assays showed that two UK Pgt isolates from 2022 could infect over 96% of current UK wheat varieties. We determined that the temperature response data in current disease risk simulation models are outdated. Analysis of germination rates for three current UK Pgt isolates showed substantial variation in temperature response functions, suggesting that the accuracy of disease risk simulations would be substantially enhanced by incorporating data from prevailing Pgt isolates. As Pgt incidences continue to accelerate in western Europe, we advocate for urgent action to curtail Pgt losses and help safeguard future wheat production across the region.