[Predictive indicators and risk model construction for coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease children over 5 years old].

Objectives: To study predictive indicators for coronary artery lesions (CAL) and construct a risk prediction model for CAL in Kawasaki disease (KD) children over 5 years old.

Methods: A retrospective analysis of KD children over 5 years old at Wuhan Children's Hospital of Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology from January 2018 to January 2023 was conducted. Among them, 47 cases were complicated with CAL, and 178 cases were not. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to explore predictive indicators for CAL in KD children over 5 years old and construct a risk prediction model. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the prediction model. Finally, the Framingham risk scoring method was used to quantify the predictive indicators, calculate the contribution of each indicator to the prediction of CAL in KD children over 5 years old, and construct a risk prediction scoring model.

Results: The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the duration of fever before the initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment (=1.374, 95%: 1.117-1.689), levels of hypersensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP; =1.008, 95%: 1.001-1.015), and serum ferritin levels (=1.002, 95%: 1.001-1.003) were predictive indicators for CAL in KD children over 5 years old. The optimal cutoff values for predicting CAL were: duration of fever before initial IVIG treatment of 6.5 days (AUC=0.654, 95%: 0.565-0.744), hs-CRP of 110.50 mg/L (AUC=0.686, 95%: 0.597-0.774), and ferritin of 313.62 mg/L (AUC=0.724, 95%: 0.642-0.805). According to the Framingham risk scoring method, the low, medium, and high-risk states of CAL occurrence were defined as probabilities of <10%, 10%-20%, and >20%, respectively, with corresponding scores of 0-4 points, 5-6 points, and ≥7 points.

Conclusions: In KD children over 5 years old, those with a longer duration of fever before initial IVIG treatment, higher levels of hs-CRP, or elevated serum ferritin levels are more likely to develop CAL.