Nomograms based on ratio indexes to predict severity and prognosis in immune checkpoint inhibitors-related myocarditis: a retrospective analysis.

Purpose: Immune checkpoint inhibitors-related myocarditis (ICI-M) is one of the immune-related adverse events (irAEs), which is rare and highly lethal. This study aimed to establish nomograms based on ratio biomarkers to predict the severity and prognosis of ICI-M.

Methods: We retrospectively examined patients with advanced cancers who were also diagnosed with ICI-M at the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University. The patients of ICI-M were divided into mild and severe groups and a 40-day following up was carried out. The major adverse cardiovascular events(MACEs) were regarded as the endpoint. Nomogram-based models were established and validated.

Results: Seventy-seven patients were involved, including 31 severe cases(40.3%). Lactate dehydrogenase-to-albumin ratio(LAR) combined with the change rate from baseline to onset of LAR( LAR) which performed best to diagnose the severe ICI-M was identified to establish the nomogram-based model. The bootstrap-corrected concordance index [0.752 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.635 0.866] and calibration plot with good degree of fitting confirmed this diagnostic model. Neutrophil-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio(NHR) and LAR were also screened into the nomogram-based model for 40-day MACEs after ICI-M, which performed well by validating for concordance index(0.779 95% CI: 0.677 0.865)and calibration plots after being bootstrap-corrected. Moreover, a  101% increase in LAR significantly separated patients in MACE-free survival.

Conclusion: Ratio indexes at onset and their change rates from baseline showed good diagnostic value for the severity of ICI-M and prognostic value for subsequent MACEs, particularly LAR, NHR and their change rates. The nomogram-based models of ratio indexes could provide a potential choice for early detection and monitor of the severe ICI-M and subsequent MACEs.