Ecosystem services dynamics and their influencing factors: Synergies/tradeoffs interactions and implications, the case of upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia.

Understanding the relationships among ecosystem services (ESs) and their interactions with influencing factors is essential for spatially targeted ecosystem governance. However, classifying the spatial distribution of these diverse interactions still needs improvement. Furthermore, existing studies have insufficiently addressed the specific impacts of bidirectional land cover transitions on ESs. Taking the upper Blue Nile basin as a study area, we estimated the spatiotemporal distribution of annual water yield (AWY), carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and soil retention (SR) from 2000 to 2020, using InVEST models and associated formulas. Changes in ESs per inward-outward land cover transition were quantified based on the Cross-Tabulation Matrix. An improved pairwise method was employed to assess the spatially diverse interactions between ESs pairs and their relationship with influencing factors. The statistical significance of influencing factors was evaluated using partial least square regression. The findings indicated that high HQ values were prevalent in the west, while they were in the east for SR. The central and southern areas experienced higher CS and AWY values. During the study period, variations were observed in the mean values of SR (ranging from 22.89 to 23.88 × 10 t/ha/y), AWY (32.13-42.2 × 10 mm/ha/y), CS (90.5-102.9 × 10gC/ha/y) and HQ (0.62-0.64). Synergies were predominant in AWY-CS, AWY-SR, and CS-SR pairs. HQ revealed more of a no-effect and tradeoff relationship with other ESs. The interactions between ESs and influencing factors were dominated by synergies, followed by tradeoffs and no-effect. The influence of landscape structure (gyrate and landscape shape index) and land surface temperature on all ESs and precipitation on AWY and SR was significant (1.049 ≤ Variable Importance in the Projection ≤ 1.371). Overall, the spatiotemporal dynamics of key ESs and the modeling of their drivers are essential policy information for taking spatially explicit conservation measures. This study will also serve as a valuable methodological reference for future research.