Background: Acute nutrition-related adverse outcomes are common in head and neck cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy. Predictive models can assist in identifying high-risk patients to enable targeted intervention. We aimed to systematically evaluate predictive models for predicting severe acute nutritional symptoms, insufficient intake, tube feeding, sarcopenia, and weight loss.
Methods: We searched PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO, Embase, WanFang, CNKI, and SinoMed. We selected studies developing predictive models for the aforementioned outcomes. Data were extracted using a predefined checklist. Risk of bias and applicability assessment were assessed using the Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. A narrative synthesis was conducted to summarize the model characteristics, risk of bias, and performance.
Results: A total of 2941 studies were retrieved and 19 were included. Study outcome measure were different symptoms (n = 11), weight loss (n = 5), tube feeding (n = 3), and symptom or tube feeding (n = 1). Predictive factors mainly encompassed sociodemographic data, disease-related data, and treatment-related data. Seventeen studies reported area under the curve or C-index values ranging from 0.610 to 0.96, indicating moderate to good predictive performance. However, candidate predictors were incomplete, outcome measures were diverse, and the risk of bias was high. Most of them used traditional model development methods, and only two used machine learning.
Conclusions: Most current models showed moderate to good predictive performance. However, predictors are incomplete, outcome are inconsistent, and the risk of bias is high. Clinicians could carefully select the models with better model performance from the available models according to their actual conditions. Future research should include comprehensive and modifiable indicators and prioritize well-designed and reported studies for model development.
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