The utility of serum neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin level on predicting autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease progression.

Introduction: We focused on neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) and autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) progression.

Methods: ADPKD patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 30 mL/min/1.73 m were included. Serum NGAL level and NGAL to eGFR ratio (NGR), height-adjusted total kidney volume (hTKV) were assessed initially. Patients were followed-up for 5 years.

Results: Sixty one patients were enrolled and initial eGFR was 73.6 (48.9-101.5) ml/min/1.73m. EGFR declined by 3.7 mL/min/1.73m per year. Thirty four patients (55.7%) exhibited rapid progression. Rapid progression group had lower serum NGAL levels (p < 0.001) and higher hTKV (p < 0.001). Lower serum NGAL level was a risk factor for rapid progression (p < 0.001). NGR was not associated with rapid progression. Serum NGAL level was predictive in for rapid progression ROC analysis (cut-off <10.62 ng/mL).

Conclusion: Relatively lower serum NGAL levels can predict worse outcomes in ADPKD and can provide risk stratification in patients with ADPKD.