Global daily mask use estimation in the pandemic and its post environmental health risks: Analysis based on a validated dynamic mathematical model.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a sharp increase in disposable surgical mask usage. Discarded masks can release microplastic and cause environmental pollution. Since masks have become a daily necessity for protection against virus infections, it is necessary to review the usage and disposal of masks during the pandemic for future management. In this study, we constructed a dynamic model by introducing related parameters to estimate daily mask usage in 214 countries from January 22, 2020 to July 31, 2022. And we validated the accuracy of our model by establishing a dataset based on published survey data. Our results show that the cumulative mask usage has reached 800 billion worldwide, and the microplastics released from discarded masks due to mismanagement account for 3.27% of global marine microplastic emissions in this period. Furthermore, we illustrated the response relationship between mask usage and the infection rates. We found a marginally significant negative correlation existing between the mean daily per capita mask usage and the rate of cumulative confirmed cases within the range of 25% to 50%. This indicates that if the rate reaches the specified threshold, the preventive effect of masks may become evident.