The predictive value of supervised machine learning models for insomnia symptoms through smartphone usage behavior.

Introduction: Digital phenotyping can be an innovative and unobtrusive way to improve the detection of insomnia. This study explores the correlations between smartphone usage features (SUF) and insomnia symptoms and their predictive value for detecting insomnia symptoms.

Methods: In an observational study of a German convenience sample, the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) and smartphone usage data (e.g., time the screen was active, longest time the screen was inactive in the night) for the previous 7 days were obtained. SUF (e.g., min, mean) were calculated from the smartphone usage data. Correlation analyses between the ISI and SUF were conducted. For the specification of the machine learning models (ML), 80 % of the data was allocated to training, 20 % to testing, and five-fold cross-validation was used. Six algorithms (support vector machine, XGBoost, Random Forest, k-Nearest-Neighbor, Naive Bayes, and Logistic Regressions) were specified to predict ISI scores ≥15.

Results: 752 participants (51.1 % female, mean ISI = 10.23, mean age = 41.92) were included in the analyses. Small correlations between some of the SUF and insomnia symptoms were found. In the ML models, sensitivity was low, ranging from 0.05 to 0.27 in the testing subsample. Random Forest and Naive Bayes were the best-performing algorithms. Yet, their AUCs (0.57, 0.58 respectively) in the testing subsample indicated a low discrimination capacity.

Conclusions: Given the small magnitude of the correlations and low discrimination capacity of the ML models, SUFs, as measured in this study, do not appear to be sufficient for detecting insomnia symptoms. Further research is necessary to explore whether examining intra-individual variations and subpopulations or employing alternative smartphone sensors yields more promising outcomes.