Trends in the contribution of greenhouse gas emissions from food and beverage purchases in Mexico: 1989-2020.

Background: Assessing the trends in dietary GHGE considering the social patterning is critical for understanding the role that food systems have played and will play in global emissions in countries of the global south. Our aim is to describe dietary greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) trends (overall and by food group) using data from household food purchase surveys from 1989 to 2020 in Mexico, overall and by education levels and urbanicity.

Methods: We used cross-sectional data from 16 rounds of Mexico's National Income and Expenditure Survey, a nationally representative survey. The sample size ranged from 11,051 in 1989 to 88,398 in 2020. We estimated the mean total GHGE per adult-equivalent per day (kg CO2-eq/ad-eq/d) for every survey year. Then, we estimated the relative GHGE contribution by food group for each household. These same analyses were conducted stratifying by education and urbanicity.

Results: The mean total GHGE increased from 3.70 (95%CI: 3.57, 3.82) to 4.90 (95% CI 4.62, 5.18) kg CO2-eq/ad-eq/d between 1989 and 2014 and stayed stable between 4.63 (95% CI: 4.53, 4.72) and 4.89 (95% CI: 4.81, 4.96) kg CO2-eq/ad-eq/d from 2016 onwards. In 1989, beef (19.89%, 95% CI: 19.18, 20.59), dairy (16.87%, 95% CI: 16.30, 17.42)), corn (9.61%, 95% CI: 9.00, 10.22), legumes (7.03%, 95% CI: 6.59, 7.46), and beverages (6.99%, 95% CI: 6.66, 7.32) had the highest relative contribution to food GHGE; by 2020, beef was the top contributor (17.68%, 95%CI: 17.46, 17.89) followed by fast food (14.17%, 95% CI: 13.90, 14.43), dairy (11.21%, 95%CI: 11.06, 11.36), beverages (10.09%, 95%CI: 9.94, 10.23), and chicken (10.04%, 95%CI: 9.90, 10.17). Households with higher education levels and those in more urbanized areas contributed more to dietary GHGE across the full period. However, households with lower education levels and those in rural areas had the highest increase in these emissions from 1989 to 2020.

Conclusions: Our results provide insights into the food groups in which the 2023 Mexican Dietary Guidelines may require to focus on improving human and planetary health.