Analysis of the current risk of transmission for domestic dogs in Spain and Portugal and its future projection in climate change scenarios.

Canine leishmaniosis, caused by the protozoan parasite , is a cosmopolitan vector-borne zoonosis, transmitted principally by in Spain and Portugal, where it is considered an endemic disease. Ecoinformatics tools such as ecological niche models (ENM) have been successfully tested to model the distribution of the risk of infection of different parasitosis as they take into account environmental variables vital for their survival. The risk map proposed in this study combines the potential distribution of in the Iberian Peninsula and the calculation of the infection rate of the parasite in the vector to model the risk of contracting the disease in a more realistic way. In fact, this weighting strategy improves the predictive power of the resulting model ( = 0.42,  = < 0.01) compared to the ENM model alone ( = 0.13,  > 0.05). The places with the highest risk of transmission are the southwest and central peninsular area, as well as the Mediterranean coast, the Balearic Islands and the Ebro basin, places where the ideal habitat of and the infection rate is also high. In the case of future projections under climate change scenarios, an increase in the risk of infection by can be observed in most of the territory (4.5% in 2040, 71.6% in 2060 and 63% in 2080), mainly in the northern part of the peninsula. The use of ENMs and their weighting with the infection rate in is a useful tool in predicting the risk of infection for in dogs for a given area. In this way, a more complete model can be obtained to facilitate prevention and control.