The relationship between intraoperative hypothermia and postoperative delirium: The PNDRFAP study.

Objective: Our study aimed to investigate the correlation between intraoperative hypothermia and postoperative delirium (POD) in patients undergoing general anesthesia for gastrointestinal surgery.

Methods: The study comprised 750 participants from the Perioperative Neurocognitive Disorder Risk Factor and Prognosis (PNDRFAP) study database, which ultimately screened 510 individuals in the final analysis. Preoperative cognitive function was evaluated using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). The occurrence of POD was determined using the Confusion Assessment Method, and the severity of POD was evaluated using the Memorial Delirium Assessment Scale. Logistic regression was employed to scrutinize the association between intraoperative hypothermia and the incidence of POD, and the sensitivity analysis was conducted by introducing adjusted confounding variables. Decision curves and a nomogram model were utilized to assess the predictive efficacy of intraoperative hypothermia for POD. Mediation analysis involving 10,000 bootstrapped iterations was employed to appraise the suggested mediating effect of numeric rating scale (NRS) scores at 24 and 48 h post-surgeries. The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) was utilized to evaluate the effectiveness of intraoperative hypothermia in predicting POD.

Results: In the PNDRFAP study, the occurrence of POD was notably higher in the intraoperative hypothermia group (62.2%) compared to the intraoperative normal body temperature group (9.8%), with an overall POD incidence of 17.6%. Logistic regression analysis, adjusted for various confounding factors (age [40-90], gender, education, MMSE, smoking history, drinking history, hypertension, diabetes, and the presence of cardiovascular heart disease), demonstrated that intraoperative hypothermia significantly increased the risk of POD (OR = 4.879, 95% CI = 3.020-7.882, p < .001). Mediation analyses revealed that the relationship between intraoperative hypothermia and POD was partially mediated by NRS 24 h after surgery, accounting for 14.09% of the association (p = .002). The area under the curve of the ROC curve was 0.685, which confirmed that intraoperative hypothermia could predict POD occurrence to a certain extent. Decision curve and nomogram analyses, conducted using the R package, further substantiated the predictive efficacy of intraoperative hypothermia on POD.

Conclusion: Intraoperative hypothermia may increase the risk of POD, and this association may be partially mediated by NRS scores 24 h after surgery.