A prediction model of abnormal acid reflux in gastroesophageal reflux disease.

Background And Aim: The measurement of esophageal acid exposure time (AET) using combined multichannel intraluminal impedance-pH (MII-pH) tests is the gold standard for diagnosing gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). However, this catheter-based 24-h test can cause considerable patient discomfort. Our aim is to identify factors affecting AET and to develop a scoring model for predicting AET abnormalities before conducting the MII-pH test.

Methods: Of the 366 patients who underwent MII-pH test at two facilities in Japan and Vietnam, 255 patients who also had esophagogastroduodenoscopy and high-resolution manometry were included in this study. Logistic regression analysis was conducted using risk factors for AET > 6% identified from a derivation cohort (n = 109). A scoring system predicting AET > 6% was then constructed and externally validated with a separate cohort (n = 146).

Results: Three variables were derived from the prediction model: male gender, Hill grades III-IV, and weak mean distal contractile integrals. Based on these scores, patients were classified into low (0 point), intermediate (1-3 points), and high (4 points) risk groups. The probabilities of having an AET > 6% were 6%, 34%, and 100% for these groups, respectively. A score of < 1 excluded patients with abnormal AET, with a negative predictive value of 93.8% in the derivation cohort and 80.0% in the validation cohort.

Conclusions: We derived and externally validated a prediction model for abnormal AET. This system could assist in guiding the appropriate treatment strategies for GERD.