Evaluating the impact of sugar-sweetened beverages tax on overweight, obesity, and type 2 diabetes in an affluent Asian setting: A willingness-to-pay survey and simulation analysis.

Background: The potential health effects of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been insufficiently examined in Asian contexts. This study aimed to assess the impact of SSB taxation on the prevalence of obesity/overweight and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Hong Kong using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) survey and simulation analysis.

Methods: A random telephone survey was conducted with 1000 adults from May to June 2020. We used a contingent valuation approach to assess individuals' WTP for SSBs under four tax payment scenarios (5%, 10%, 40%, and 50% of the current market price). Based on the WTP, a simulation analysis was conducted to project changes in SSB purchase and associated reductions in the prevalence of obesity/overweight and T2DM over a 10-year simulation period.

Findings: When 5% and 10% taxation rates were introduced, approximately one-third of the population were unwilling to maintain their SSB purchase. Our simulation demonstrated a gradual decline in the prevalence of obesity/overweight and diabetes with a more pronounced decrease when higher taxation rates were introduced. 10% taxation resulted in a mean reduction of 1532.7 cases of overweight/obesity per 100 thousand population at the sixth year, while T2DM prevalence decreased by 267.1 (0.3%).

Conclusions: This study underscores the effects of an SSB tax on purchase behaviors and health outcomes in an affluent Asia setting, with a more pronounced influence on adult population. These findings are expected to inform policymakers in making decisions regarding an effective and equitable tax rate on SSBs.