Prediction of long-term visual outcome of idiopathic full-thickness macular hole surgery using optical coherence tomography parameters that estimate potential preoperative photoreceptor damage.

Purpose: To identify optical coherence tomography (OCT) parameters that predict postoperative best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and are based on recent understanding of the pathomechanism of idiopathic full thickness macular hole (iFTMH) formation and closure.

Methods: A retrospective consecutive case series of patients who had macular hole (MH) surgery at our institution between 2016 and 2022 was performed. 32 eyes of 30 patients were selected with at least 12 months of follow-up, closed MH and good quality OCT at each visit. Univariate correlation analysis, multiple logistic regression with forward stepwise selection, and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) were used to identify the best predictors for postoperative BCVA at 6 and 12 months (M), and final (≥ 12 M) visits, and a new OCT index was created. Abilities of best models/indices to predict < 0.30 logMAR (> 20/40) BCVA were compared to macular hole index (MHI) using the area under the receiver operating curve (AU-ROC) analysis.

Results: Statistical analysis revealed base diameter (B) (6 M), preoperative BCVA and B (12 M) and smaller ELM-GCL distance (A), and B (final visit) as predictors for postoperative BCVA. AU-ROC analysis indicated greatest AUC at 6 M for MHI and B (0.797, p = 0.004 and 0.836 p = 0.001, respectively) and for the new A/B index at 12 M and final visit (0.844, p = 0.002 and 0.913, p = 0.003, respectively).

Conclusion: Our study suggests that MHI and B can be useful predictors of short term BCVA while the new A/B index that incorporates OCT parameters indicating potential preoperative photoreceptor damage may be a good predictor for long term postoperative BCVA. Our findings support the theory that initial hole formation mechanisms and photoreceptor damage define visual prognosis.