Early warning model for stroke recurrence in acute ischemic stroke patients based on traditional Chinese medicine syndrome theory.

Objective: This study aimed to establish an early warning model for stroke recurrence in acute ischemic stroke patients based on Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) syndrome theory.

Methods: This retrospective study collected the data of 1741 patients with ischemic stroke from 7 clinical centers between July 2016 and November 2019. Distance correlation coefficient, mutual information entropy, and statistical correlation test were used for univariate analysis. Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied to construct and validate the stroke recurrence warning model at different time. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the early warning ability of the model.

Results: We successfully constructed the early warning model. The median follow-up time was 1.42 years (95% CI [1.37, 1.47]). Recurrence events occurred in 175 patients, with a cumulative recurrence rate of 10.05% (95% CI [8.64, 11.47]). The AUC of the model was 0.64±0.02 in the training set and 0.70±0.03 in the validation set.

Conclusion: The TCM syndrome model can give an early warning for the recurrence of stroke and provide reference for the secondary prevention of ischemic stroke.