Ovarian response to controlled stimulation and its predictors in a limited-resource setting.

Background: Infertility remains a serious health concern for Ethiopian women. Most of its treatment approaches entail controlled ovarian stimulation, the responses of which vary. However, there are no data on ovarian response to stimulation or its predictors in our situation. Thus, the current study aimed to assess the ovarian response to controlled stimulation and identify predictors.

Methods: A retrospective follow-up study was undertaken from April 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022, among patients who had first-cycle controlled ovarian stimulation at St.Paul's Hospital Fertility Center in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Clinical data were extracted using a checklist. SPSS-26 for data analysis and Epidata-4.2 for data entry were employed. The binary logistic regression model was fitted. A p-value < 0.05 indicated a significant association. The ROC curve was used to determine cutoff values and identify accurate predictors.

Results: A total of 412 study participants were included in the final analysis. The patients had a mean age of 32.3 ± 5.1 years (range: 20 - 4). The good ovarian response rate was 67% (95% CI: 62.2-71.5). An anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) concentration < 1.2ng/ml (AOR = 0.19, 95% CI (0.06-0.57)), an antral follicle count (AFC) < 5 (AOR = 0.16, 95% CI (0.05-0.56)), and an induction length < 10 days (AOR = 0.23, 95% CI (0.06-0.93)) were significantly associated with ovarian response. The prediction accuracies for the AFC and AMH concentrations were 0.844 and 0.719, respectively. The optimal cutoff point for prediction was 5.5 AFC, which had a sensitivity of 77.2% and a specificity of 72.8%. However, its positive and negative predictive values were 85.2% and 61.1%, respectively. For AMH, the optimal cutoff value was 0.71ng/mL, with a corresponding sensitivity and specificity of 65.2% and 66%. At this value, the positive and negative predictive values were 63.8% and 67.3%, respectively.

Conclusion: Only two-thirds of our patients achieved a good ovarian response. Induction duration, AMH concentration, and AFC were found to be predictors, with the AFC being the strongest predictor. Therefore, the AFC should be performed on all of our patients, and the AMH is selectively employed. Future research must verify the best cutoff points and investigate additional factors affecting ovarian response.