GALAD score as a prognostic model for recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after local ablation.

Background: Currently, the high recurrence rate still forms severe challenges in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treatment. The GALAD score, including age, gender, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive AFP (AFP-L3), and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) was developed as a diagnostic model. However, evidence is still lacking to confirm the capability of the GALAD score to predict the recurrence of HCC.

Methods: This study included 390 HCC patients after local ablation at Beijing You'an Hospital from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2022. Firstly, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was calculated to assess the predictive capability of the GALAD score. Then, the Kaplan-Meier (KM) curve and log-rank test were used to compare the prognosis between two groups classified by GALAD score. Finally, a nomogram for high-risk patients was established by Lasso-Cox regression. It was assessed by ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: The ROC curve (AUC: 0.749) and KM curve showed the GALAD score had good predictive ability and could clearly stratify patients into two groups through the risk of recurrence. Prognostic factors selected by Lasso-Cox regression contained tumor number, tumor size, and globulin. The nomogram for high-risk patients showed reliable discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.

Conclusion: This research displayed that the GALAD score is an effective model for predicting the recurrence of HCC. Meanwhile, we found the poor prognosis of the high-risk group and created a nomogram for these patients.