Nonlinear progression during the occult transition establishes cancer lethality.

Cancer screening is based upon a linear model of neoplastic growth and malignant progression. Yet, historical observations suggest that malignant progression is uncoupled from growth which may explain the paradoxical increase in early-stage breast cancer detection without a dramatic reduction in metastatic burden. Here we lineage trace millions of genetically transformed field cells and thousands of screen detectable and symptomatic tumors using a cancer rainbow mouse model of HER2+ breast cancer. Transition rates from field cell to screen detectable tumor and then to symptomatic tumors were estimated from a dynamical model of tumor development. Field cells are orders of magnitude less likely to transition to a screen detectable tumor than the subsequent transition of a screen detectable tumor to a symptomatic tumor. Our model supports a critical occult transition in tumor development during which time a transformed cell becomes a neoplasm. Lineage tracing and test-by-transplantation reveals that nonlinear progression during or prior to the occult transition gives rise to nascent lethal cancers at screen detection. Simulations illustrate how occult transition rates are a critical determinant of tumor growth and malignancy in the lifetime of a host. Our data provides direct experimental evidence that cancers can deviate from the predictable linear progression model foundational to current screening paradigms.