How do seasonal temperature variations influence interplay between toxic and non-toxic cyanobacterial blooms? Evidence from modeling and experimental data.

Summer cyanobacterial blooms exhibit a dynamic interplay between toxic and non-toxic genotypes, significantly influencing the cyanotoxin levels within a lake. The challenge lies in accurately predicting these toxin concentrations due to the significant temporal fluctuations in the proportions of toxic and non-toxic genotypes. Typically, the toxic genotypes dominate during the early and late summer periods, while the non-toxic variants prevail in mid-summer. To dissect this phenomenon, we propose a model that accounts for the competitive interaction between toxic and non-toxic genotypes, as well as seasonal temperature variations. Our numerical simulations suggest that the optimal temperature of the toxic genotypes is lower than that of the optimal temperatures of the non-toxic counterparts. This difference of optimal temperature may potentially contribute to explain the dominance of toxic genotypes at the early and late summer periods, situation often observed in the field. Experimental data from the laboratory align qualitatively with our simulation results, enabling a better understanding of complex interplays between toxic and non-toxic cyanobacteria.