Inability to start or complete upper secondary school strongly predicts unemployment and psychosocial and psychiatric adversities - A register-based follow-up study from southwestern Sweden.

Aim: To study academic, social and psychiatric outcomes among adults in the general population in southwestern Sweden. Groups of individuals born in 1998 and ineligible, eligible but not completed, and eligible and completed upper secondary school were followed in 2020.

Methods: Data were retrieved from Statistics Sweden, the Swedish National Agency for Education, the Longitudinal Integrated Database for Health Insurance and Labour Market Studies, the Swedish National Crime Register and the National Patient Register. The four adverse outcomes neither engaging in post-secondary studies nor having a regular salary, needing social benefits, having any criminal conviction, and having a psychiatric disorder at age ≥16 were examined.

Results: Of the final sample of 2706 individuals who had attended 9th grade of compulsory school in 2014, 273 (10%) were ineligible for upper secondary school. Of eligible individuals, 82 (3%) never started, 282 (10%) did not complete and 2065 (77%) completed upper secondary school. Compared with completers, the odds ratios for adverse outcomes were markedly increased for all other groups up to 22 years old.

Conclusion: Inability to start or complete upper secondary school strongly predicted unemployment and psychosocial and psychiatric adversities. School authorities should consider offering vocational programmes post compulsory school without grade restrictions.