Air pollution, lung function and mortality: survival and mediation analyses in UK Biobank.

Background: Air pollution is associated with lower lung function, and both are associated with premature mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Evidence remains scarce on the potential mediating effect of impaired lung function on the association between air pollution and mortality or CVD.

Methods: We used data from UK Biobank (n∼200 000 individuals) with 8-year follow-up to mortality and incident CVD. Exposures to particulate matter <10 µm (PM), particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM) and nitrogen dioxide (NO) were assessed by land-use regression modelling. Lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV), forced vital capacity (FVC) and the FEV/FVC ratio) was measured between 2006 and 2010 and transformed to Global Lung Function Initiative (GLI) z-scores. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards and causal proportional hazards mediation analysis models were fitted, stratified by smoking status.

Results: Lower FEV and FVC were associated with all-cause and CVD mortality, and incident CVD, with larger estimates in ever- than never-smokers (all-cause mortality hazard ratio per FEV GLI z-score decrease 1.29 (95% CI 1.24-1.34) for ever-smokers and 1.16 (95% CI 1.12-1.21) for never-smokers). Long-term exposure to PM or NO was associated with incident CVD, with similar effect sizes for ever- and never-smokers. Mediated proportions of the air pollution-all-cause mortality estimates driven by FEV were 18% (95% CI 2-33%) for PM and 27% (95% CI 3-51%) for NO. Corresponding mediated proportions for incident CVD were 9% (95% CI 4-13%) for PM and 16% (95% CI 6-25%) for NO.

Conclusions: Lung function may mediate a modest proportion of associations between air pollution and mortality and CVD outcomes. Results likely reflect the extent of either shared mechanisms or direct effects relating to lower lung function caused by air pollution.