Development and validation of an online dynamic nomogram system for pulmonary consolidation in children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia.

Introduction: The occurrence of pulmonary consolidation in children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) can lead to exacerbation of the disease. Therefore, early identification of children with MPP in combination with pulmonary consolidation is critical. The purpose of this study was to develop a straightforward, easy-to-use online dynamic nomogram for the identification of children with MPP who are at high risk of developing pulmonary consolidation.

Methods: 491 MPP patients were chosen and divided randomly into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort at a 4:1 ratio. Multi-factor logistic regression was used to identify the risk variables for mixed pulmonary consolidation in children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP). The selected variables were utilized to build the nomograms and validated using the C-index, decision curve analysis, calibration curves, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

Results: Seven variables were included in the Nomogram model: age, fever duration, lymphocyte count, C-reactive protein (CRP), ferritin, T8 lymphocyte percentage, and T4 lymphocyte percentage. We created a dynamic nomogram that is accessible online ( https://ertong.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/ ). The C-index was 0.90. The nomogram calibration curves in the training and validation cohorts were highly comparable to the standard curves. The area under the curve (AUC) of the prediction model was, respectively, 0.902 and 0.883 in the training cohort and validation cohort. The decision curve analysis (DCA) curve shows that the model has a significant clinical benefit.

Conclusions: We developed a dynamic online nomogram for predicting combined pulmonary consolidation in children with MP based on 7 variables for the first time. The predictive value and clinical benefit of the nomogram model were acceptable.