Two-year incidence and risk factors of diabetic foot ulcer: second phase report of Ahvaz diabetic foot cohort (ADFC) study.

Aim/introduction: This study was designed as the second phase of a prospective cohort study to evaluate the incidence and risk factors of diabetic foot ulcers (DFU).

Materials And Methods: The study was conducted in a university hospital in Iran. Each participant was checked and followed up for two years in terms of developing newfound DFU as ultimate outcome. We investigated the variables using univariate analysis and then by backward elimination multiple logistic regression.

Results: We followed up 901 eligible patients with diabetes for two years. The mean age of the participants was 53.24 ± 11.46 years, and 58.53% of them were female. The two-year cumulative incidence of diabetic foot ulcer was 8% (95% CI 0.071, 0.089) [Incidence rate: 49.9 /1000 person-years]. However, the second-year incidence which was coincident with the COVID-19 pandemic was higher than the first-year incidence (4.18% and 1.8%, respectively). Based on our analysis, the following variables were the main risk factors for DFU incidence: former history of DFU or amputation [OR = 76.5, 95% CI(33.45,174.97), P value < 0.001], ill-fitting foot-wear [OR = 10.38, 95% CI(4.47,24.12), P value < 0.001], smoking [OR = 3.87,95%CI(1.28, 11.71),P value = 0.016], lack of preventive foot care [OR = 2.91%CI(1.02,8.29),P value = 0.045], and insufficient physical activity[OR = 2.25,95% CI(0.95,5.35),P value = 0.066].

Conclusion: Overall, the two-year cumulative incidence of diabetic foot ulcer was 8% [Incidence rate: 49.9 /1000 person-years]; however, the second-year incidence was higher than the first-year incidence which was coincident with the COVID-19 pandemic (4.18% and 1.8%, respectively). Independent risk factors of DFU occurrence were prior history of DFU or amputation, ill-fitting footwear, smoking, lack of preventive foot care, and insufficient physical activity.