Does shortage of GPs matter? A cross-sectional study of practice population life expectancy.

Background: There are not enough GPs in England. Access to general practice and continuity of care are declining.

Aim: To investigate whether practice characteristics are associated with life expectancy of practice populations.

Design And Setting: A cross-sectional ecological study of patient life expectancy from 2015-2019.

Method: Selection of independent variables was based on conceptual frameworks describing general practice's influence on outcomes. Sixteen non-correlated variables were entered into multivariable weighted regression models: population characteristics (Index of Multiple Deprivation, region, % White ethnicity, and % on diabetes register); practice organisation (total NHS payments to practices expressed as payment per registered patient, full-time equivalent fully qualified GPs, GP registrars, advanced nurse practitioners, other nurses, and receptionists per 1000 patients); access (% seen on the same day); clinical performance (% aged ≥45 years with blood pressure checked, % with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease vaccinated against flu, % with diabetes in glycaemic control, and % with coronary heart disease on antiplatelet therapy); and the therapeutic relationship (% continuity).

Results: Deprivation was strongly negatively associated with life expectancy. Regions outside London and White ethnicity were associated with lower life expectancy. Higher payment per patient, full-time equivalent fully qualified GPs per 1000 patients, continuity, % with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease having the flu vaccination, and % with diabetes with glycaemic control were associated with higher life expectancy; the % being seen on the same day was associated with higher life expectancy in males only. The variable aged ≥45 years with blood pressure checked was a negative predictor in females.

Conclusion: The number of GPs, continuity of care, and access in England are declining, and it is worrying that these features of general practice were positively associated with life expectancy.