Incidences of newly diagnosed childhood diabetes and onset severity: a multicenter regional study in Thailand over two decades and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objectives: While global  incidence rates (IR) of childhood diabetes are increasing, there is a notable lack  of current information on the incidence of childhood-onset diabetes in Thailand. This study aims to illustrate the age-standardized IR and types of childhood diabetes using multicenter regional data in Northern Thailand from 2005 to 2022 and to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods: Data on newly diagnosed childhood diabetes were retrospectively collected between 2005 and 2016 and prospectively recorded for all incident cases between 2016 and 2022. The capture-recapture method was applied to estimate the completeness of ascertainment. The age-standardized IR of diabetes was calculated. The IR of diabetes and the prevalence/severity of DKA at onset were compared between the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods.

Results: Among 210 patients, type 1 diabetes (T1D) accounted for 56.2 %, type 2 diabetes (T2D) for 39 %, and other types for 4.8 %. The T1D age-standardized IR significantly increased from 0.30 in 2005 to 3.11/100,000 person/year in 2022, mirroring the T2D trend, which increased from 0.33 to 3.15/100,000 person/year. The average T1D age-standardized IR, including the prevalence/severity of DKA at diagnosis, did not significantly differ between the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods (2.11 vs. 2.36/100,000 person/year, p-value=0.67). However, the average T2D age-standardized IR significantly increased from 0.83 to 2.15/100,000 person/year during the pandemic (p-value=0.0057).

Conclusions: This study highlights an increased incidence of childhood T1D and T2D in Northern Thailand over a two-decade period. Notably, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the T1D incidence remained stable, while a significant rise in T2D incidence was observed.