The effect of weight gain and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease on liver fibrosis progression and regression in people with HIV.

Objective: People with HIV (PWH) have high risk of liver fibrosis. We investigated the effect of weight gain and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) on liver fibrosis dynamics.

Design: Multicenter cohort study.

Methods: Fibrosis progression was defined as development of significant fibrosis [liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥8 kPa], or transition to cirrhosis (LSM ≥13 kPa), for those with significant fibrosis at baseline. Fibrosis regression was defined as transition to LSM less than 8 kPa, or to LSM less than 13 kPa for those with cirrhosis at baseline. MASLD was defined as hepatic steatosis (controlled attenuation parameter >248 dB/m) with at least one metabolic abnormality. A continuous-time multistate Markov model was used to describe transitions across fibrosis states.

Results: Among 1183 PWH included from three centers (25.2% with viral hepatitis coinfection), baseline prevalence of significant fibrosis and MASLD was 14.4 and 46.8%, respectively. During a median follow-up of 2.5 years (interquartile range 1.9-3.5), the incidence rate of fibrosis progression and regression was 2.8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-3.4] and 2.2 (95% CI 1.9-2.6) per 100 person-years, respectively. In Markov model, weight gain increased the odds of fibrosis progression [odds ratio (OR) 3.11, 95% CI 1.59-6.08], whereas weight gain (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.10-0.84) and male sex (OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.14-0.75) decreased the odds of fibrosis regression. On multivariable Cox regression analysis, predictors of fibrosis progression were weight gain [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 3.12, 95% CI 1.41-6.90] and MASLD (aHR 2.72, 95% CI 1.05-7.02).

Conclusion: Fibrosis transitions are driven by metabolic health variables in PWH, independently of viral hepatitis coinfection and antiretroviral class therapy.