The prognostic model and immune landscape based on cancer-associated fibroblast features for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer.

Background: This study aimed to construct a nomogram based on CAF features to predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates of locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients.

Methods: The EPIC algorithm was employed to calculate the proportion of CAFs. based on the differentially expressed genes between the high and low CAF proportion subgroups, prognostic genes were identified via LASSO and Cox regression analyses. They were then used to construct a prognostic risk signature. Moreover, the GSE39582 and GGSE38832 datasets were used for external validation. Lastly, the level of immune infiltration was evaluated using ssGSEA, ESTIMATE, CIBERSORTx, and TIMER.

Results: A higher level of CAF infiltration was associated with a worse prognosis. Additionally, the number of metastasized lymph nodes and distant metastases, as well as the level of immune infiltration were higher in the high CAF proportion subgroup. Five prognostic genes (SMOC2, TUBAL3, C2CD4A, MAP1B, BMP8A) were identified and subsequently incorporated into the prognostic risk signature to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS rates in the training and validation sets. Differences in survival rates were also determined in the external validation cohort. Furthermore, independent prognostic factors, including TNM stage and risk score, were combined to established a nomogram. Notably, our results revealed that the proportions of macrophages and neutrophils and the levels of cytokines secreted by M2 macrophages were higher in the high-risk subgroup. Finally, the prognostic genes were significantly associated with the level of immune cell infiltration.

Conclusion: Herein, a nomogram based on CAF features was developed to predict the CSS rate of LARC patients. The risk model was capable of reflecting differences in the level of immune cell infiltration.