Estimating the return on investment of the New York Tobacco Control Programme: a synthetic control study.

Objective: To assess the return on investment (ROI) of the New York Tobacco Control Programme (NY TCP).

Setting: New York and other states of the USA.

Interventions: NY TCP.

Outcomes: Smoking prevalence, smoking-attributable healthcare expenditures (SAEs), smoking-attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLL), the dollar value of YLL and the ROI for healthcare expenditures and mortality.

Design And Methods: We used a synthetic control method to estimate the effectiveness of NY TCP funding on smoking prevalence. The synthetic control method created a comparison group that best matched the adult smoking prevalence trend in New York state in the period prior to implementation of the NY TCP and compared smoking prevalence in the state to smoking prevalence in the synthetic control in the period after treatment (2001-2019). The synthetic control group represents what the trend in smoking prevalence in New York would have been had there been no tobacco control expenditures. The ROI was calculated as net savings for each outcome divided by net programme expenditures.

Results: Cumulative savings in SAE in New York from 2001 to 2019 amounted to US$13.2 billion. An estimated 41 771 smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) were averted in New York from 2001 to 2019, and an estimated 672 141 YLL averted as a result of NY TCP funding in the same period. From 2001 to 2019, the ROI for SAE in New York was approximately 14, the economic value ROI of the YLL due to SAD was nearly 145 and the combined ROI was almost 160.

Conclusions: In this study, we found relatively large ROIs for the NY TCP, which suggests that the programme-which lowers SAE and saves lives-is an efficient use of public funds.