Triglyceride-glucose-waist circumference index predicts the incidence of cardiovascular disease in Korean populations: competing risk analysis of an 18-year prospective study.

Background: The triglyceride and glucose-waist circumference (TyG-WC) index demonstrated a strong association with insulin resistance, especially in Asian population. However, evidence on the association between TyG-WC index and the occurrence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is limited. This study aimed to verify association between the TyG-WC index and the occurrence of CVD by considering all-cause mortality as a competing risk.

Methods: The study included 7482 participants divided into four groups based on the TyG-WC index quartiles. Kaplan-Meier curves illustrated cumulative incidence rates of CVD and all-cause mortality during the follow-up period. Log-rank tests determined group differences. The Cox proportional hazard spline curve demonstrates the dose-dependent relationship between the TyG-WC index and incident CVD. Modified Cox regression (Fine and Gray) estimated hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs for incident CVD, treating death as a competing risk. Death event after incident CVD was excluded from the death count.

Results: During the median 15.94 year of follow-up period, a total of 691 (9.24%) new-onset CVD cases and 562 (7.51%) all-cause mortality cases were confirmed. Cox proportional hazard spline curves suggested that TyG-WC index exhibited a dose-dependent positive correlation with incident CVD. The cumulative incidence rate of CVD was significantly higher in the groups with higher TyG-WC index quartiles in Kaplan-Meier curves. The adjusted HR (95% CI) for incident CVD in Q2-Q4, compared with Q1, was 1.47 (1.12-1.93), 1.91 (1.44-2.54) and 2.24 (1.63-3.07), respectively. There was no significant association between TyG-WC index and all-cause mortality. Specifically, angina and stroke were significantly associated with the TyG-WC index, in contrast to myocardial infarction and peripheral artery disease.

Conclusions: The TyG-WC index was positively associated with incident CVD even considering all-cause mortality as a competing risk. Therefore, TyG-WC index may be a valuable marker for predicting the occurrence of CVD.