Predicting Tibia-Fibula Geometry and Density From Anatomical Landmarks Via Statistical Appearance Model: Influence of Errors on Finite Element-Calculated Bone Strain.

State-of-the-art participant-specific finite element models require advanced medical imaging to quantify bone geometry and density distribution; access to and cost of imaging is prohibitive to the use of this approach. Statistical appearance models may enable estimation of participants' geometry and density in the absence of medical imaging. The purpose of this study was to: (1) quantify errors associated with predicting tibia-fibula geometry and density distribution from skin-mounted landmarks using a statistical appearance model and (2) quantify how those errors propagate to finite element-calculated bone strain. Participant-informed models of the tibia and fibula were generated for thirty participants from height and sex and from twelve skin-mounted landmarks using a statistical appearance model. Participant-specific running loads, calculated using gait data and a musculoskeletal model, were applied to participant-informed and CT-based models to predict bone strain using the finite element method. Participant-informed meshes illustrated median geometry and density distribution errors of 4.39-5.17 mm and 0.116-0.142 g/cm3, respectively, resulting in large errors in strain distribution (median RMSE = 476-492 με), peak strain (limits of agreement =±27-34%), and strained volume (limits of agreement =±104-202%). These findings indicate that neither skin-mounted landmark nor height and sex-based predictions could adequately approximate CT-derived participant-specific geometry, density distribution, or finite element-predicted bone strain and therefore should not be used for analyses comparing between groups or individuals.