Elucidating the risk of cardiopulmonary consequences of an exacerbation of COPD: results of the EXACOS-CV study in Germany.

Background: Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) represent a period of vulnerability. This study explored the association between time periods following an exacerbation and the risk of severe cardiovascular (CV) events or death in Germany.

Methods: A longitudinal cohort study was conducted using routinely collected healthcare data. Individuals with COPD were identified between 2014 and 2018. Exposure was moderate or severe exacerbation of COPD. Periods at risk were the 1-7, 8-14, 15-30, 31-180 and 181-365 days following each exacerbation onset occurring after cohort entry. The main outcome of interest was the first hospitalisation for a CV event or all-cause death. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models estimated the HR for the association between subperiods versus periods outside exacerbations, and the risk of outcome.

Results: Among 126 795 patients, 58 720 (46.3%) exacerbated at least once and 48 982 (38.6%) experienced at least one CV event or died during a median follow-up of 36 months. The rate of outcome was increased during 1-7 days following a severe exacerbation onset (HR 15.84, 95% CI 15.26 to 16.45), and remained elevated for up to a year (181-365 days HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.23). In the 1-7 days following a moderate exacerbation onset, the increased rate was HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.31).

Conclusion: The risk of a CV event or death increased in time periods following both moderate and severe exacerbations of COPD, emphasising the need to promptly manage the risk of CV events following the onset of an exacerbation, to prevent exacerbations of any severity, and more generally, to address the cardiopulmonary risk in patients with COPD.