Disrupted family reunification: Mental health, race, and state-level factors.

The children's mental health landscape is rapidly changing, and youth with mental health conditions (MHCs) are overrepresented in the child welfare system. Mental health is the largest unmet health need in child welfare, so MHCs may affect the likelihood of system reentry. Concerns regarding mental health contribute to calls for expanded supports, yet systems contact can also generate risk of continued child welfare involvement via surveillance. Still, we know little about how expanded supports at the state-level shape child welfare outcomes. Using the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis Reporting System (AFCARS), we examine the association between MHCs and system reentry within 36 months among youth who reunified with their families in 2016 (N = 41,860). We further examine whether this association varies across states and White, Black, and Latinx racial and ethnic groups via two- and three-way interactions. Results from multilevel models show that, net of individual and state-level factors, MHCs are associated with higher odds of reentry. This relationship is stronger for youth in states that expanded Medicaid by 2016 and with higher Medicaid/CHIP child participation rates. The results also show evidence of the moderating role of state-level factors, specifically student-to-school counselor ratio, diverging across racial and ethnic groups. Our results suggest a need for systems of care to better support youth mental health and counteract potential surveillance.