Physicochemical variables influencing the abundance of Atlantic goliath grouper juveniles (Epinephelus itajara) in a tropical Brazilian mangrove habitat.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationships between the abundance and occurrence of juvenile Atlantic goliath grouper and physicochemical variables in a tropical mangrove ecosystem, employing a non-lethal methodology. Juvenile Atlantic goliath grouper individuals were captured biweekly, using blue crab traps, across three locations within the São Mateus estuary (18°36'S, 39°44'W), from August 2021 to July 2022. Simultaneously, the physicochemical water variables were assessed during each trap inspection. The physicochemical water variables influence on the abundance and occurrence of Atlantic goliath grouper juveniles were assessed using the Zero-Inflated Binomial (ZIB) and the Poisson (ZIP) generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs). A total of 66 Atlantic goliath grouper juveniles were sampled (Pontal do Sul = 50, Lagoa Creek = 13, and Pitangueiras Creek = 3), ranging from 32 to 319 mm in total length. The best model fitted to presence-absence data (AIC = 278.6) consisted of location, depth, and salinity, with only location having a significant influence on the likelihood of species occurrence. Regarding abundance data, the best model (AIC = 336.4) included location, depth, and turbidity, with only location and depth showing a significant impact on abundance variation, with lower abundance at deeper areas. Although our results indicate a weak significant influence of physicochemical variables on juvenile Atlantic goliath grouper distribution, it is imperative to continue this monitoring effort, considering that additional data may be required to gain a deeper understanding of these patterns.