The longitudinal association of adipose-to-lean ratio with incident cardiometabolic morbidity: The CARDIA study.

Aim: To assess the association of adipose-to-lean ratio (ALR) with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, and dyslipidemia in middle adulthood.

Method: Black and White Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults participants without T2DM, hypertension, or dyslipidemia in 2005-06 (baseline) were included. Baseline adipose and lean mass were assessed via dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. ALR was calculated as adipose divided by lean mass and then standardized within sex strata. Single time-point incident morbidity was assessed every five years from baseline through 2016. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for morbidity over 10 years per 1-SD increment in ALR adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors.

Result: The cumulative incidence of T2DM was 7.9 % (129 events/N = 1643; 16,301 person-years), 26.7 % (485 events/N = 1819; 17,895 person-years) for hypertension, and 49.1 % (435 events/N = 855, 8089 person-years) for dyslipidemia. In the adjusted models, ALR was positively associated with a risk of T2DM (HR [95 % CI]; 1.69 [1.31, 2.19]) and hypertension (1.23 [1.08, 1.40]). There was no significant interaction between ALR and sex for any morbidity.

Conclusion: ALR in middle adulthood is associated with incident T2DM and hypertension. The extent to which localized body composition measures might inform morbidity risk merits further investigation.