What's Behind the Dramatic Pre-2020 Declines in Hispanic/Latina Adolescent Childbearing? Decomposing Change by Age, Origin, and Nativity.

Purpose: To assess whether the large declines in adolescent childbearing among Hispanic adolescents over the period 2000-2019 have been driven by co-occurring changes in the composition of the Hispanic population and, if so, whether they have done so differentially by Hispanic subgroup.

Methods: We use birth counts from the United States vital statistics system and population denominators from the United States decennial census long form 5-percent Public Use Microdata and the American Community Survey to conduct a decomposition analysis apportioning observed declines in Hispanic adolescent childbearing to: (1) compositional shifts in nativity, age, and region-of-origin and (2) subgroup changes in childbearing rates.

Results: The Hispanic adolescent fertility rate fell by over 71% from 2000 to 2019, with Mexican-Origin, United States-born, and younger adolescents exhibiting the steepest declines (79%, 70%, and 80% declines, respectively). Results from the decomposition analysis show that almost 90% of the decline is due to within-group rate change, with some variability by subgroup and by decade. Only 10% of the decline was due to compositional changes, with shifts in nativity driving much of the effect.

Discussion: Declines in Hispanic adolescent childbearing over the last decades have occurred in spite of substantial shifts in the composition of the Hispanic population, not because of them. These findings set the stage for a more detailed examination of the drivers of change in sexual activity, contraceptive use, and abortion, all of which are proximate determinants of adolescent pregnancy and childbearing. Additionally, a focus on more distal factors is needed, including the role that changing political, societal, and economic conditions in the United States have for early fertility patterns.