Longitudinal association of premature atrial contractions with atrial fibrillation and brain ischemia in people with type 2 diabetes: The Hoorn Diabetes Care System cohort.

Background: Premature atrial contractions (PACs) are potential markers for imminent onset of both atrial fibrillation (AF) and brain ischemia (BI; transient ischemic attack [TIA] or ischemic stroke). We investigated the association of PACs with incident AF and BI events separately, and of incident AF with BI events in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) without pre-existing AF or cerebrovascular disease.

Methods: A prospective longitudinal study of 12,242 people with T2D without known AF or cerebrovascular disease from the Hoorn Diabetes Care System cohort. Annual measurements (1998-2018) included cardiovascular risk factors, over 85,000 ECGs, and self-reported cardiovascular events. We assessed the association of PACs with incident AF and BI events and of incident AF with BI events using time-dependent Cox-regression models, adjusted for time-varying cardiovascular risk factors and medication use (Hazard Ratios with 95%CIs).

Results: The baseline mean age was 62.2 ± 11.9 years. During a median follow-up of 7.0 (IQR 3.4-11.0) years, 1031 (8.4 %) participants had PACs, and 566 (4.6 %) had incident AF at any of the median 6 (IQR 3-10) annual ECG recordings. BI events occurred in 517 (4.2 %) people (304 TIAs, 213 ischemic strokes). After adjustment, PACs were associated with incident AF (Hazard Ratio, 1.96 (95%CI, 1.53-2.50)), but not with overall BI events (1.09 (0.76-1.56)), or with TIA (0.91 (0.57-1.46)) or ischemic stroke (1.50 (0.88-2.54)) separately. AF was not associated with BI events (0.95 (0.55-1.63)).

Conclusions: In people with T2D without a history of AF or BI events, PACs are associated with a two-fold increased risk of incident AF.