Combining radiomics with thyroid imaging reporting and data system to predict lateral cervical lymph node metastases in medullary thyroid cancer.

Background: Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma (MTC) is a rare type of thyroid cancer. Accurate prediction of lateral cervical lymph node metastases (LCLNM) in MTC patients can help guide surgical decisions and ensure that patients receive the most appropriate and effective surgery. To our knowledge, no studies have been published that use radiomics analysis to forecast LCLNM in MTC patients. The purpose of this study is to develop a radiomics combined with thyroid imaging reporting and data system (TI-RADS) model that can use preoperative thyroid ultrasound images to noninvasively predict the LCLNM status of MTC.

Methods: We retrospectively included 218 MTC patients who were confirmed from postoperative pathology as LCLNM negative (n=111) and positive (n=107). Ultrasound features were selected using the Student's t-test, while radiomics features are first extracted from preoperative thyroid ultrasound images, and then a two-step feature selection approach was used to select features. These features are then used to establish three regularized logistic regression models, namely the TI-RADS model (TM), the radiomics model (RM), and the radiomics-TI-RADS model (RTM), in 5-fold cross-validation to determine the likelihood of the LCLNM. The Delong's test and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate and compare the performance of the models.

Results: The ultrasound features of margin and TI-RADS level, and a total of 12 selected radiomics features, were significantly different between the LCLNM negative and positive groups (p<0.05). The TM, RM, and RTM yielded an averaged AUC of 0.68±0.05, 0.78±0.06, and 0.82±0.05 in the 5-fold cross-validation dataset, respectively. RM and RTM are statistically better than TM (p<0.05 and p<0.001) according to Delong test. DCA demonstrates that RTM brings more benefit than TM and RM.

Conclusions: We have developed a joint radiomics-based model for noninvasive prediction of the LCLNM in MTC patients solely using preoperative thyroid ultrasound imaging. It has the potential to be used as a complementary tool to help guide treatment decisions for this rare form of thyroid cancer.